Example Research Reports
The following reports were written in the earlier Moeller Ventures days. Since these reports were written, the focus has been on customized research and reports for clients, which I don't publish on the Website.
While this report was published in November of 2003 it is still as relevant as ever. In fact, I always thought that this report needed to be written much earlier. It was always on my to-do list while in the investment banking business. This report explains the basics of wireless communication applications in a relatively non-technical manner, and links those technological fundamentals to the business principles that drive successful wireless applications. My favorite misconception that I hear over and over is the one that directly equates higher frequency communications with longer range communications, when in reality there is an inverse relationship between frequency and range. That fundamental, in turn, directly impacts the density of communications infrastructure (i.e. infrastructure cost) needed to deploy a communications system. Those costs, of course, are key to the success of a business based on that system. This is one of many interesting fundamentals you’ll find in this report.
This report, published in June of 2004, exemplifies a financial analysis approach I applied to the wireless industry. The basic algorithm used in this report is founded on the application of trend line analysis and the computation of Bell curve standard deviation trend lines that bracket the expected higher and lower results of the principle trend lines. Armed with the deviation trend lines one can easily see if posted results are within expectations or not, and if not, how far away the results are from expectations. It’s fundamentally an analytical approach to analyzing posted results and setting reasonable expectations for future results. In the report, this algorithm is applied to the major indices, such as the S&P 500, as well as the Wireless Holder Index, and also to a broader and more segmented analysis of the wireless industry. In applying the algorithm to the line items of a summed income statement representing industry sub-segments, we decipher industry trends of revenue, gross profit, costs, and income.
This is a set of spread sheets that were a result of the Wireless Industry Performance Profile report above, and show in a concise format the fundamental numbers from the wireless industry segmentation analysis performed in the report.
This set of charts is also a result of the Wireless Industry Performance Profile report above and exemplifies the analysis that was performed on all the companies mentioned in the report. This chart set shows the additional analysis in applying the deviation trend line algorithm to the income statement line items of Qualcomm.
This report is certainly one of my favoriates. Not because of the accuracy of our predictions for the wireless LAN industry, or any other numbers in the report, but rather in what it represents…the success of great ideas and the convergence of industry trends. This report was written by my friend, Mike Brown, and I in preparation for coverage following the IPO of Aironet in July of 1999. While July certainly isn’t an ideal time to go public (many Wall Street folks on summer vacation) and Aironet certainly had more than its share of challenges (competitors publicly bashing the company while also privately angling to buy the company), the IPO was eventually a success and culminated with the purchase of Aironet by Cisco for nearly a 10-fold increase over its IPO price just nine months later. Aironet now represents a very successful wireless LAN product line for Cisco. Funny thing about this whole industry segment, which actually began with our coverage of Proxim in 1997, was that we, as analysts, were actually chastised for our pursuit of the industry because the management of our firm didn’t believe the segment held much future business. I always held out hope as I believed in the technological trends that I experienced first-hand while designing spread spectrum radios at Uniplex and thought that a much larger industry would emerge given the right technological solutions. Aironet turned out to be one of our firm’s most successful financing transactions and certainly the most successful wireless transaction, and lead to our participation in the IPOs of BreezeCOM and Vyyo.